Latest Projections Autumn 2009
Download the latest South West Economy Projections- Autumn 2009
Download the interactive data table
This bulletin provides an outline of the latest economic projections, for the South West region, in terms of output and employment. The projections are produced on a twice-yearly basis.
The recession is more severe that previously anticipated and its focus has changed - with impact now moving from the financial services and construction sector towards manufacturing. As a result these projections are more optimistic in the short run than previous bulletins. The projections are for a 4.5% decline in real GVA in the South West between 2008 and 2009 and a further marginal decline of 0.3 % between 2009 and 2010.
Projections or Forecasts
The numbers provided here are described as ‘projections’, as they input UK forecasts into the South West model without any regional adjustment to the UK forecasts. These projections are therefore giving a picture of what might happen in the South West if the median HMT forecast holds true and structural trend relationships between the UK macroeconomic variables and economic activity in the South West continue to hold. The South West Projections estimate relationships between growth of components of demand in the UK economy (household consumption etc.) and industry output at the national and regional level. This is then combined with longer-term trends in output and productivity at an industry level within the regions.
If you are interested in how the structural relationships may change over time, the simulations provide some analysis of scenarios developed around particular ‘hot’ topics
Previous Projections
Projections Spring 2009
Projections Autumn 2008
Projections Spring 2008
Projections Spring 2008
Projections Autumn 2007
Projections Spring 2007
Projections Spring 2007 (Data)
Projections Autumn 06
Projections Spring 2006
