Latest simulation
Low Growth Scenarios for the South West - November 2009
This bulletin considers the growth potential of the South West in the light of historical data. It focuses on the region’s long term growth prospects in the post-recession era. It also investigates the conditions under which the South West economy might move to a lower growth trajectory, and considers some of the implications of a lower growth future in the form of four low growth scenarios. These scenarios are analysed using simulations of the Economy Module’s models of the South West economy
In this simulation exercise, the Economy Module establishes the parameters SW England needs to consider when looking at regional growth prospects for the future. It provides structured thinking about the implications of lower growth, offering insight as to what might constrain SW growth and what lower growth might mean
How are simulations produced? The simulation model is based on the 'computable general equilibrium' methodology, which tries to imitate the effects on market processes. The South west model is based on the 'AMOS' model of Scotland developed by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.
Computable general equilibrium models have been widely used in policy analysis at a national level and have also been widely applied to analyse regional economies. There use in the UK has, however, been hindered by the absence of comprehensive regional accounts for the UK regions - with the exception of Scotland. The development, by the Econnomy Module, of detailed and comprehensive regional accounts for the South West have allowed the development of this very powerful analytical tool in advance of most other UK regions.
Previous Simulations
Where will we work? Post-recession futures for the South West This simulation looks beyond the current recession at the longer term prospects for employment in South West England. It uses two scenarios to develop a picture of the industries and occupations that will play an important role in the post-recession economy.
The Housing Market Collapse: Impacts on the South West England Economy (April 2009) House price growth has been a driver of economic activity since the 1990s until mid-2007. This bulletin considers the impact of the recent fall in house prices for the South West Economy. Three scenarios are constructed which look at different house price paths for 2009 and beyond. The impact of these scenarios is then tracked through to the real economy.
Innovation and Productivity 1
This bulletin examines the innovation performance of firms in the South West, comparing this with that of firms in the South East of England, the strongest performing UK region in terms of innovation. It seeks to explain the differences in innovation performance between the South West and the South East, and investigates the implications of these differences for business performance within the region. It then presents the results of simulations of the potential impact of improvements in innovation performance for the South West economy as a whole.
Innovation and Productivity 2
This bulletin focuses on three aspects of innovation that are particularly important for policy: 1) the role of information networks and collaboration in supporting innovation activities and outputs 2) the barriers perceived by firms as limiting their innovation activities and/or the results of those activities and 3) receipt of public policy support as a determinant of innovation performance.
Energy Food Bulletin
The above report analyses the impact of the following two 'shocks' on the SW economy: a rise in food distribution costs associated with higher energy prices; and an increase in export demand for agricultural products associated with greater use of bio-fuels. Using the SW Regional Accounts, the report simulates specific impacts on output, employment, prices, supply and trade.
Global Credit Crunch
This report analyses the potential impact of the recent turbulence in financial markets upon the South West economy. Because the ultimate impact of these events on particular economies is highly uncertain, this bulletin offers alternative scenarios for the South West based on different assumptions. Specific characteristics of the region are taken into account in an attempt to provide an accurate simulation.
The Knowledge Economy in the South West
This bulletin analyses the South West's knowledge economy using a range of information related to knowledge intensive industries, knowledge-based occupations, R&D activity and the role of the region's higher education institutions. It presents projections for the future growth of the region's knowledge economy and considers alternative scenarios concerning future growth in knowledge intensive industries.
Globalisation- June 2007
This paper discusses how globalisation might progress and how the South West economy may be influenced by future developments in the global economy. This analysis utilises models of the South West economy developed by the South West Observatory: Business & Economy.
Energy Simulation
The DTI's report on the recent UK Energy Review (The Energy Challenge) highlighted two key challenges facing the UK with the supply and use of energy in the future:
- Ensuring secure and reliable access to energy resources in the context of rapidly rising global energy demand and uncertainties over imported supplies of key fuels; and
- Reducing dependence on carbon-based energy sources so as to cut carbon emissions and mitigate the risks associated with global climate change.
Both of these issues are likely to contribute to higher energy costs (and to higher taxes and charges on energy use and carbon emissions) and to stricter regulations on energy efficiency. This bulletin considers the possible implications of these trends for households and businesses within the South West.
Home Working Simulation
Advances in information and telecommunications technologies (ICT) over recent years have greatly enhanced the flexibility of working for many people. One important aspect of this has that workers are increasingly able to work at locations remote from colleagues and customers. This bulletin examines home working within the South West of England, and discusses the possible economic implications of increasing home working. It draws on data on home working derived from the ONS Labour Force Survey, supplemented by analyses using BEM's economic modelling resources.
Demographic Ageing (PDF)
Demographic Ageing (PowerPoint)
