Latest simulations
The Squeeze on Household Finances: Implications for the South West Economy - March 2011
This bulletin examines the pressures on UK household finances over recent years and considers how these may evolve in future. It looks at regional differences with regard to recent and prospective trends in household finances. It also considers how households might respond to these trends. In particular, it examines two scenarios. In scenario one, households respond to a decline in their incomes by reducing savings so as to maintain expenditure. Under the other, uncertainty over future income prospects and a concern over recent declines in their net wealth lead households to increase savings by cutting back on spending. This bulletin investigates the impact of these alternative scenarios on the UK economy and the South West.
Previous Simulations
Fiscal Tightening Update: Implications for the South West Economy - December 2010
Following the Coalition's recent Comprehensive Spending Review, the Economy Module has now published an update on its earlier (pre-election) analysis of the impact of fiscal tightening on the South West's economy. Our simulation results suggest that announced ‘fiscal consolidation’ measures will result in a significant short term reduction in total output and employment within the South West. South West GVA will be around £800 million (or 0.9%) lower in 2012 and 2013 than in the absence of these measures, while total employment will decline by around 19,000 full-time equivalent jobs. By 2020, South West output will be only around 0.1% lower than without these fiscal consolidation measures.
Regaining our Balance - Implications for the South West Economy - November 2010
The new UK coalition government believes that the UK economy has become unbalanced and overly indebted. Much recent debate on the UK economy has emphasized these perceived imbalances and the urgent need to redress them. This latest bulletin from the Economy Module investigates the possible implications for the South West of 'rebalancing' the UK economy, examining the evidence for various types of economic 'imbalance' and ways in which economies have historically become restructured as imbalances have been removed. It then explores the possible implications for the South West economy by modelling of implications of three rebalancing scenarios.
Low Growth Scenarios for the South West - November 2009
This bulletin considers the growth potential of the South West in light of historical data. It focuses on the region’s long term growth prospects in the post-recession era. It also investigates the conditions under which the South West economy might move to a lower growth trajectory, and considers some of the implications of a lower growth future in the form of four low growth scenarios. These scenarios are analysed using simulations of the South West economy.
The Housing Market Collapse: Impacts on the South West England Economy - April 2009
House price growth has been a driver of economic activity since the 1990s until mid-2007. This bulletin considers the impact of the recent fall in house prices for the South West Economy. Three scenarios are constructed which look at different house price paths for 2009 and beyond. The impact of these scenarios is then tracked through to the real economy.
Innovation and Productivity 1
This bulletin examines the innovation performance of firms in the South West, comparing this with that of firms in the South East of England, the strongest performing UK region in terms of innovation. It seeks to explain the differences in innovation performance between the South West and the South East, and investigates the implications of these differences for business performance within the region. It then presents the results of simulations of the potential impact of improvements in innovation performance for the South West economy as a whole.
Innovation and Productivity 2
This bulletin focuses on three aspects of innovation that are particularly important for policy: 1) the role of information networks and collaboration in supporting innovation activities and outputs; 2) the barriers perceived by firms as limiting their innovation activities and/or the results of those activities; and 3) receipt of public policy support as a determinant of innovation performance.
Energy Food Bulletin
This report analyses the impact of the following two 'shocks' on the South West economy: a rise in food distribution costs associated with higher energy prices; and an increase in export demand for agricultural products associated with greater use of bio-fuels. Using the South West Regional Accounts, the report simulates specific impacts on output, employment, prices, supply and trade.
Energy Simulation
The UK Energy Review (The Energy Challenge) highlighted two key challenges facing the UK with the supply and use of energy in the future:
- ensuring secure and reliable access to energy resources in the context of rapidly rising global energy demand and uncertainties over imported supplies of key fuels; and
- reducing dependence on carbon-based energy sources so as to cut carbon emissions and mitigate the risks associated with global climate change.
Both of these issues are likely to contribute to higher energy costs (and to higher taxes and charges on energy use and carbon emissions) and to stricter regulations on energy efficiency. This bulletin considers the possible implications of these trends for households and businesses within the South West.
