Additional Economy Module Publications

Glossary of Economic Terms
A glossary of commonly used economic terms.  This specifically links in with the resources used at the Economics Demystified training event.

South West Regional Accounts: 11 Years of Data - March 2011
This paper provides an overview of the key regional messages provided by the latest South West Regional Accounts (SWRAs) release.  It focuses on industrial and occupational structure and regional trade, aspects of the Accounts that may be less familiar to users.  Moreover, it re-introduces the economic impact analysis tool developed from the SWRAs' input-output approach.  Although principally looking at the South West, hopefully the headline analysis presented in this paper will give users a flavour of the types of analysis that can be performed using the SWRAs for different areas or sectors.

Public Sector Employment in Previous Recessions - December 2010
With the implementation of the Government's public sector cuts looming, this briefing looks at the effect of previous recessions on public sector employment.  Whilst employment in the private sector fell substantially in previous recessions, the effect on public sector employment has been more mixed.  This briefing looks at whether previous patterns give any indication of how the cuts will affect employment in the South West. 

The Effects of the Recession on the South West Labour Market - December 2010
This briefing looks at the impact of the recent recession on the South West labour market with comparisons nationally and to previous recessions.  It looks at changes in employment, unemployment and inactivity.  It traces patterns in part-time working and self-employment.  It also highlights the differing effects of the recession by gender, age and sub-region. 

Impact of public sector spending cuts - September 2010
A raft of public sector cuts have been announced in recent months, with more expected in the autumn Comprehensive Spending Review as the Coalition Government attempts to close the UK deficit.  This analysis looks at the emerging evidence of the impact of public sector spending cuts on the South West and its places, including the effect of public sector job losses, cuts to public sector procurement and capital investment, reduction in public service provision and welfare reform.

Special Risks to Recovery, March 2010
RBS economists have just released an analysis of the risks to recovery.  This paper paraphrases their arguments in terms of our view of what it might mean for SW England.  The higher risks are mostly concerned with policy mistakes.  For the region, the concern is that the policy safety net is removed before the economy has regained its balance and achieved momentum.

Credit rating - November, 2009
Would it matter if the UK lost its "triple A" status?
The Treasury is alarmed that the UK government might lose its “triple A” credit rating. In practical terms, it would increase the burden of the current economic crises on the fiscal accounts and make future government spending and taxation plans more difficult. In political terms, it would undermine the UK’s positions at many “top tables” and raise further doubts about economic management in this country. This briefing explains what credit ratings are, who does them and why they are important   

Public Sector Deficit, September, 2009
Large public sector deficits are a problem because they tend to depress growth and employment prospects and have to be repaid from future revenues, implying higher taxes, which again depress growth.  This paper provides an insight into why the fiscal deficit has become a crucial economic issue.

Quantitative Easing: What does it mean and will it work? June 2009
The special briefing provides an explanation as to why the Bank of England and other monetary authorities around the world are pursuing quantitative easing (QE) in these difficult economic times and provides some insights into the burning question -  will it work?  

Data Alert: SW business conditions - PMI & other surveys - August 2011
This briefing looks at the SW Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July which confirms that the global picture is prevalent in SW England. Business activity is barely positive, with the region seemingly weaker than other parts of the United Kingdom over the last three months.

Foreign ownership of businesses in the United Kingdom - Latest ONS data - May 2011
In April 2011, the Office for National Statistics released data on the foreign ownership of businesses in the United Kingdom.  This briefing looks at the figures to see how the South West performs in comparison to the national average and how the South West's Local Authorities fit into the regional picture.  It particularly focuses on employment figures to measure the extent of the impact of foreign ownership on the South West economy.

Business Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2010 - The Structure of Private Sector - May 2011
BIS released a new statistical product called the Business Population Estimates for UK and the Regions. This replaces the series called SME Statistics which covered the period from 1994 to 2009. This Data Alert draws attention to the various changes that make the two series not directly comparable and looks at how this data alters our understanding of the structure of the South West’s private sector.  

South West Trade 2010: UK Regional Trade Statistics - Latest HMRC Release - March 2011
This briefing looks at the regional trade statistics for the final quarter of 2010 and focuses on the figures for the South West's imports and exports.  Between 2009 and 2010, the South West's percentage increase in exports exceeded that of all other English regions.  With the recent focus on creating growth through exporting, this paper assesses the South West's current position and looks at future prospects.    

Business Demography 2009, Latest ONS Release - December 2010
The Office for National Statistics has recently released data on business births, deaths and survival rates for 2009.  These data enable us to look at how the recession has affected the number of new businesses, the rate at which businesses cease operations and how long new businesses survive.  This briefing focuses on trends in the South West. 

Business Expenditure on Research & Development, Latest regional statistics - December 2010
The Office for National Statistics has just released 2009 figures for research and development (R&D) expenditure by UK business, including some regional information.  R&D can be an early loser in times of economic downturn as firms look to cut non-essential spending.  It is interesting therefore to look at the effect of the recent recession on these statistics.  This briefing summarises the key findings for the South West. 

Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), Latest ONS Release - November 2010
The Department of Business, Innovation and Skills released Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) Statistics for the UK and Regions 2009 on 13th October 2010.  These statistics include estimates for unregistered enterprises, giving a more accurate picture of SME activity.  The data capture the beginning of the recession and show a rise in the number of enterprises in the South West. 

UK Business: Activity, Size and Location, Latest ONS Release - October 2010
In September ONS published the UK Business: Activity, Size and Location 2010 report, giving a snapshot of 99% of UK business activity in March 2010.  The data shows that although there has been a decline in South West business activity through the recession, the region has performed better than some.  Within the region, some areas have been hit harder by the recession, in particular there has been a fall in the number of small and young firms.    

South West Gross Value Added: the latest data - December 2011

Latest data showing regional and sub-regional economic output, highlighting the affect of data revisions. The data shows that all parts of the region went into recession during 2008-2009. However, the major story is the significant revisions to the historical data which reduces the intra-regional differences that we had previously assumed.

Understanding Economic Growth - December 2010

The recent release of regional and sub-regional gross value added (GVA) data gives an indication of how the South West region has performed in terms of growth and productivity. This paper takes a longer view on what these measures are able to tell us. It explores the long-run real, that is excluding inflation, rate of growth has been and looks at the contributions from population growth, the level of employment and productivity. It is important to note that whilst the data in this briefing has been superseded by the 2011 release, many of the principles commented on remain.

OECD Economic Outlook - November 2011
The OECD provides authoritative economic forecasts twice a year in its "Economic Outlook." Because the OECD is an international body dependent on, largely, "first world" members, its views about the world economy tend to be mainstream and non-controversial: individual countries "approve" what is published about them. Nevertheless, the OECD economists have strong technical capacity and expertise, making their published views a good benchmark against which to test your own analysis.  This briefing looks at the latest edition of the Economic Outlook, November 2011.

Human Capital Leading Indicators: How Europe's Regions and Cities Can Drive Growth and Foster Social Inclusion: Data for the NUTS2 regions in the South West - March 2011
In March of 2011 the EU launched a growth strategy for the coming decade called Europe 2020. The focus of the strategy is very much on the development of ‘human capital’ and, in support of this, a new set of human capital indicators has been researched at NUTS2 level.  This briefing picks out the data for the South West region and makes a few straight-forward observations.

Economic Prediction and the Planning Process: A contribution to the current debate about regional planning for housing need after the recession  - January 2011
The links between demographic change, economic development and the planning process are complex and, at times, controversial. Migration patterns, housing provision and economic growth and job creation are affected by and related to intricate feedback mechanisms that frequently weaken understanding and raise argument. This briefing provides interpretation of the SW Growth Scenarios (Oxford Economics June 2010) currently being used to amend planned housing numbers by many authorities across SW England and, in appendix, establishes a framework for approaching economic foresight in relation to planning.

Economic Growth - Principles for Regional Development, May 2010
The recession has raised intense debate about economic growth.  This paper lays out the economic principles that underpin economic development, providing an essential foundation for discussions about growth in any regional future.

Data Alert: SW labour market and prices - August 2011

The latest labour data shows SW employment and unemployment deteriorating again. With inflation rising and output falling, the labour market is under pressure. It is interesting that the two eastern LEPs in our area are holding up better than the other four.

Business Register and Employment Survey 2009: Latest ONS Release - March 2011
In December 2010, ONS issued the first Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) data. This briefing signposts the information available in the new BRES dataset and specifically looks at the figures for the South West - the only region which saw growth in the number of employees from 2008 to 2009.  

Changing South West Labour Market Structures, April 2009
This article analyses the South West labour market projections data produced by Cambridge Econometrics and the Institute for Employment Research (IER) for the Working Futures Project. It explores the anticipated long term changes in employment by gender status, industrial sector and occupation structure.

Regional Gross Disposable Household Income 2009 - Latest ONS release - April 2011
In March 2011 the ONS released provisional Regional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) statistics for 2009. GDHI is the income available for households to save or consume, after tax, social contributions and other income related adjustments. This briefing looks at recent changes in the figures, particularly in light of the recession, and also at the longer term trends, with a focus on the South West and its sub-regions.

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings: South West special briefing - December 2010
The results from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) survey were released in December 2010. This special considers the headline findings for the South West and its constituent parts, whilst also exploring differences by full/part-time status and gender.

Public Sector Job Losses Mapped: Prepared for the SW Economic Recovery Group - February 2011
This paper presents a suite of maps depicting the spatial distribution of different aspects of the impact of public sector job losses across the South West as known at the time of analysis.

Public Sector Employment in Previous Recessions - December 2010
With the implementation of the Government's public sector cuts, this briefing looks at the effect of previous recessions on public sector employment.  Whilst employment in the private sector fell substantially in previous recessions, the effect on public sector employment has been more mixed.  This briefing looks at whether previous patterns give any indication of how the cuts will affect employment in the South West. 

Impact of public sector spending cuts - September 2010
A raft of public sector cuts have been announced in recent months, with more expected in the autumn Comprehensive Spending Review as the Coalition Government attempts to close the UK deficit.  This analysis looks at the emerging evidence of the impact of public sector spending cuts on the South West and its places, including the effect of public sector job losses, cuts to public sector procurement and capital investment, reduction in public service provision and welfare reform.

Public Expenditure in SW England, May 2011
Each year the Treasury releases statistics on public expenditure by region and function. Known as the PESA (Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses), the PESA 2011 is an important tool to understand where the cuts in public spending are occuring.

Public Sector Deficit, September, 2009
Large public sector deficits are a problem because they tend to depress growth and employment prospects and have to be repaid from future revenues, implying higher taxes, which again depress growth.  This paper provides an insight into why the fiscal deficit has become a crucial economic issue.

When in place, the ONS Regional Presence function produced the following analyses on public sector employment.

Public Sector Employment Briefing 1 - Summary of ONS Data

Public Sector Employment Briefing 2 - Summary of Sub-national Data

Data Alert: Recent UK data release round up - June 2011
We know from the experiences of Scandinavia and Japan that it takes a much longer time to recover from crises in the financial sector than the sort of bounce back that is generally experienced after recessions caused by other types of shock. So it really comes as no surprise that most of the UK macro economic indicators are less than buoyant. This Data Alert rounds up the official releases in the second half of June.

Data Alert: UK Visitor Statistics 2010: Latest ONS release - February 2011
This data alert considers the UK international visitor numbers released for 2010.  The main message for SW business is that the market has been contracting in real terms as a result of the world economic downturn. 

Transport in the South West - does it matter for the performance of the economy?
This paper examines the relationship between transport and the economy in SW England. It looks on the importance of transport drawing upon regional research and statistics. This is especially relevant following business leaders in the region expressing concern over proposed cuts and delays to major transport projects.

Using Inter-departmental business register data (IDBR), the publications below are a result of a joint ONS and RDA project. Although the data is now  out-of-date it usefully shows the type of analysis that could be undertaken using IDBR data.

Businesses 2009 by Industry and District (IDBR): South West Interactive

Businesses 2000-09 by South West District (IDBR) : Interactive