SWO Economy News

The latest sub-regional indicators is now available

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:53:09 GMT

The latest updated version of the sub-regional indicators is now available. Here is a summary of the headline changes:

GVA:

The latest available data on the sub-regional level is for 2007, which does not reflect the impact of the recession, but do however provide some indication of the performance of the sub-regions going into the recession.
Out of the NUTS2 areas in the South West, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and North Somerset (GWNS) had the highest contribution to the region’s economy (53%) followed by Dorset and Somerset (22%) and Devon (18%).
GVA per head was also highest in GWNS at £21,836 per head, 9% higher than the UK average (£19,951) and almost 20% higher than the South West average (£18,235).
In terms of GVA growth Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly had a positive improvement and the fastest growth amongst the region’s NUTS2 areas between 2006 and 2007 (6.1%) higher than the regional average growth (5.5%).

Labour market:

In the Year up to Q2 2009, the employment rate in the South West was 77.3%, lower than the previous quarter where the same rate was 78.0%.
Of those in employment, the percentage of self-employed has not changed, so the drop was due to the decrease in those who are employees. A similar picture emerges when looking at the national rate.
The highest employment rate was still in South Gloucestershire (82.5%) followed by Wiltshire (80.9) and North Somerset (79.9%).
Also, as expected, unemployment has increased both nationally (6.8%) and on the regional level (5.4%) in Q2 2009 compared to the previous quarter. Over that period Torbay had the highest unemployment rate (8.0%) in the region, followed by Swindon (6.8%) and Cornwall (6.7%).
In terms of industrial composition of employee jobs in the South West, the wholesale and retail industry had the highest share of 17.4% in 2008, followed by the human health and social activity sector (13.0%) and the manufacturing sector (10.2%). This is broadly similar the national picture and both regionally and nationally the composition has not changed from the previous year.
In January 2010 the claimant count rate in the South West was 3.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points on the same month of 2009. The corresponding UK rate was 4.3%.
On the sub-regional level, the highest rates were in Torbay (4.9%), Swindon (4.6%), Plymouth and Bournemouth (both at 4.1%).

Housing Market:

In the 3rd quarter of 2009 the average South West House price was £217,251, 4% lower than the UK average price. Excluding the Isles of Scilly, which has exceptionally high average house prices (£437,500), Poole had the highest average price (£272,188) followed by Bath and North East Somerset (£268,277) and Dorset (£245,279).
In terms of annual change between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009, Wiltshire had the largest drop of (-8.4%) followed by Bristol (-7.4%) and then jointly Bournemouth and Devon (-7.3%), all higher than the average South West change of (-0.5%) and the UK’s (-0.2%).

to view both PDF and Excel versions please follow the link bellow.

AMR 2009 Out Now

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 10:08:42 GMT

The SWO Planning Module / South West Councils has recently launched the 2009 Annual Monitoring Report.

The data sets for this will shortly all be accessible via the SWO websites, or by clicking here where you can also access previous years' data.

The latest Economics Review - February 2010 is now available

Mon, 15 Feb 2010 09:50:44 GMT

We are pleased to announce that the latest Economics Review is now available, here is a summary of the contents:

The South West economy did not suffer as badly as several other regions in the recession but it may also not rebound as quickly with implications for employment.

The region tends to follow rather than to lead and its upturn is likely to be constrained, especially if there are severe government cutbacks in areas particularly important to the South West, our Chief Economist Nigel Jump writes in the South West RDA’s Economics Review.

Nevertheless, he says the immediate South West outlook is for a slow recovery to get underway in 2010.

While regional surveys suggest that output in the South West stabilised and began to rise in the middle of last year, ahead of the UK overall, Nigel says: “Many South West companies still talk of weak demand, spare capacity and cost pressures on margins. As a result, job shedding, albeit at a slower rate than earlier, is more likely than new hiring.”

Elsewhere in the Review, Nigel sounds the alarm over the “astounding” rise in UK indebtedness over the past decade.

And in spite of last month’s return to growth in the broader UK economy, he says to “expect a period in the doldrums that does not feel much like a recovery”.

In this latest review, the special papers include ‘Modelling a low carbon economy’, ‘Innovation & high growth businesses’, ‘Regional short term indicators’ and ‘Recent Developments in the South West labour market’.

The full Review can be downloaded from the link below.

Unitary Authority - Exeter

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 15:50:48 GMT

Local Government Minister Rosie Winterton today announced the Government's final decisions on unitary proposals for Exeter, Norwich, Ipswich, Norfolk, Devon and Suffolk.

After taking into account local views, Boundary Committee advice and other relevant information the Government is giving the go ahead for Exeter and Norwich to run their cities' local services as unitary councils.

The Government decided that a unitary structure for Exeter and Norwich would make each a far more potent economic force than the current two-tier local government, and will make sure these two key regional cities are ready to seize the opportunities opening up as the recovery begins to promote growth, reduce unemployment, and rebuild local economies.

[Source - Communities & Local Government 10/02/2010]

Labour Market Review - February 2010

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 16:18:59 GMT

Labour is one of the principle resources fuelling economic production. Effective utilisation of the labour force is crucial for a region’s economic prosperity. Income and fulfilment from employment are key parts of people’s standard of living and employment is important for the overall well-being of our region.

This review considers the condition and the structure of the South West labour market. It analyses key economic, labour market and skills data to assess the long term position of the region as well as recent changes caused by the recession. It aims not only to provide a key source of statistics but to also paint a picture of some of the underlying trends and challenges facing the region’s labour market. The review is structured into four chapters – the economic context, characteristics of labour supply, characteristics of labour demand and skills and qualifications.

This review finds that the South West labour market continues to be characterised by relatively high economic activity rates, high levels of employment and low rates of unemployment. Average wages in the region tend to be lower than the national average and employment is more concentrated in lower value occupations and industries.

Key facts include

· Around 2.5 million, or 81.9% of the working age population, are classed as economically active in the South West, the second highest rate in the country after the South East (82.9%) in the year up to March 2009. The region has consistently performed well on this measure in the last ten years.

· Sub-regionally, economic activity rates vary from 77.2% in the city of Bristol to 87.4% in South Gloucestershire in the year up to March 2009.

· The region has an ageing population. In 2008, 19% of the population was aged over 65 (England 16%) and by 2021 this is predicted to rise to 26% (England 22%).

· Between Q2 2008 and Q3 2009, unemployment in the region increased from 3.8% of the economically active population to 6.6% (768,000 individuals). The SW unemployment rate remains the lowest of all the English regions.

· In the year up to March 2009, on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure, unemployment in SWE’s sub-regions ranged from 3.2% in South Gloucestershire to 7.1% in Torbay.

· The number of individuals claiming unemployment related benefits has increased following the onset of the recession, rising from 1.3% in April 2008 to a peak of 3.1% in April 2009 – an additional 56,653 claimants. At the end of 2009, the rate was 2.9%. SWE has, however, seen the smallest percentage rise in claimants amongst the regions and, recently, the negative trend has halted. It remains to be seen if this is a turning point.

To View the whole review please follow the link bellow.

PMI Report - Activity growth slowed in January, partly reflecting snow-related disruptions

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 10:58:41 GMT

We are pleased to announce that the latest South West RDA sponsored PMI report is now available.

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is a useful tool in assessing regional economic performance and is a widely recognised for providing up to date accurate information on current business conditions. It is provided by Markit Economics and is now sponsored by the English RDAs. The PMI survey methodology is available at the end of the report. The latest Economics Review (Issue 18, November 2009) included an article introducing and explaining the PMI series.

Key points from the report

· Private sector output rose in January, but at slower rate.

· Job shedding eased.

· Input price inflation the strongest since September 2008.

To view the whole report, please follow the link bellow.

South West priority sectors - special briefing

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:14:54 GMT

We are pleased to announce that a special briefing on the performance of South West priority sectors is now available.

The Regional Economic Strategy (RES) for South West England 2006-2015 identifies eight priority sectors for more focussed support to address market or institutional failure, add value and, over time, make a significant difference to the regional economy. This article provides an update on the state of each of the priority sectors given the trends of the pre-recession years

The report considers the performance of the SW priority sectors, largely between 2002 and 2007.
It confirms their underlying economic structure, highlighting both strengths and weaknesses and the potential for future gains.
It has found that the performance of the sectors has been variable with some performing strongly and improving their position relative to other SW industries and to the sector nationally, while others have shown little change and, in some cases, a decline in relative position.
The report highlights some important variation sub-regionally, implying that although some sectors’ performance may have weakened for the region as a whole, particular sub-regions continue to perform strongly.

To read the whole report, please follow the link bellow.

The National Business Survey - South West Briefing

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 16:46:57 GMT

The final results from the latest (Autumn) National Business Survey, undertaken on behalf of the RDAs by IPSOS MORI is now available. The results were obtained after surveying over 450 South West businesses between October and December 09

The survey shows there has been a slight improvement in business conditions and optimism when compared to previous surveys. 28% of businesses now expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months (only 25% expected the same in the Spring).

Here are few points that the survey shows:

Labour conditions will remain weak in the coming period. There is no strong indication that businesses are going to hire with any real enthusiasm. Coupled with their intention to continue to suppress pay levels, this has implications for consumer expenditure.
Of greatest concern is that investment intentions of businesses remain extremely subdued. Of particular concern is the low number of businesses looking to increase investment in capital.
This is partly related to businesses indicating that a persistent output gap still exists. Until we see a ‘tightening’ of this output gap then we would not expect a significant upturn in general economic conditions.
Nevertheless, the majority of businesses (70% of respondents) feel that they remain fairly or very well placed to withstand continuing weak economic conditions. Obviously, this can be looked at conversely – that nearly a third of businesses feel that they are not well placed to weather continuing weak conditions. If even a small percentage of these businesses translate into future business failures then this could be a worrying indication of more pain to come.
Businesses are indicating that cost pressures are beginning to increase, led by the cost of raw materials. This will have undoubtedly been affected by the relative weakness of sterling in recent months.
Despite a lot of media commentary, the public sector organisations that were part of the survey still show a sense of resilience. A higher proportion feels that employment levels and costs will continue to increase; this despite the severe tightening of fiscal conditions widely expected.

For the whole brief and presentation please follow the link bellow.